In preparation for this chronicle, I am reminded of a particularly interesting text that I read in the New York Times it’s been a decade, just before the start of the final between the Kings of Los Angeles and the Devils of New Jersey.
The authors of this article, Carlton Chin (an investment fund manager) and Jay Granat (a psychotherapist), were about to publish an article entitled Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological and Mathematical Approach.
In total, Chin et Granat is not alone in the 50 statistical traits and psychological traits that dominate champions in the NFL, in the NBA, in MLB, in the LNH, where the gagnants of tournois majeurs or golf and tennis.
By investigating certain statistics and certain factors of the psychology of the sport (such as the experience of big matches, the quality of leadership and consistency), the authors would have put in place an effective method to determine the team most susceptible to ‘ do at the right time what all champion teams do: execute better than their rivals and minimize mistakes.
The Lightning-Avalanche confrontation s’avère une fort bonne opportunity de tester leur method. You will no longer find double champions of the Coupe Stanley and the last and the font figure of négligés auprès des preneurs aux livres.
Pour the simple pleasure of the thing, I therefore updated the data that had been published in the New York Times on the eve of the 2012 final.
The results are very interesting…
The offensive star : In its last 42 years, the team with the best offensive player (the one with the most points during the season) has reported the Stanley Cup with 65.9 % of cases. This trend (which was 62.5 % in 2012) has intensified over the last 10 years, as the team with the best offensive player has won 70 % of the finals.
Or, Lightning includes points on Steven Stamkos (106). The capitaine du Lightning amassed 14 points along with Mikko Rantanen. And in terms of averaging points per match, Nikita Kucherov (1.47) does better than Nathan Mackinnon (1.35).
Collective defense : During its last 42 years, the finalist team with the best average goals awarded has won the Stanley Cup 24 times (57.1 %). This data was almost the same 10 years ago (56.3 %). On the other hand, in the last five years, the cup has been won only once by the best defensive team.
Pouring the latter part of Colorado-Tampa Bay, Lightning has an aura of avantage for the capital. The champions this season were the LNH’s second defense (2.41 goals awarded per match), while the Avalanche came in 4th place (2.86).
The best garden : Over the last 42 years, the team leading the number one goalkeeper who has maintained the best efficiency rate in a season has won the Stanley Cup 24 times (57.1 %). And since 2012, the best keeper has lifted the cup 6 times out of 10.
From a psychological point of view, the authors Chin and Granat also relate the effectiveness rate of a guardian to concepts such as consistency, error minimization, mental strength and leadership.
Under normal circumstances, surprisingly, it would be the Colorado Avalanche that would take advantage if one were to use the Chin and Granat method. Indeed, Darcy Kuemper maintained this season a rate (of, 921) that was slightly higher than that of Andrei Vasilevskyi (, 916). The trick is that Kuemper was injured at the end of May and did not show any transcendent numbers (, 897) before losing his place to reserve Pavel Francouz. He is, however, waiting for Kuemper to return in the final.
Throughout all this, one must not forget the fact that Vasilevskyi, who is said to be his average of the season, is recognized as being the best keeper in the world by his peers and that he is one of the best keepers dominants of the history of the elimination series. Even those who predict an Avalanche victory concede a very net advantage or Lightning in front of the net.
The experience of great moments : In their book, the authors quantify the experience of great moments by taking into account the number of finishes in which the players and coaches have participated in the previous three years. It was, according to them, a decisive factor in winning a championship.
Over the last 10 years, 4 teams have presented themselves in the final by enjoying an advantage over their opponents for what is experience. At all four raised Lord Stanley’s salad.
On this field, after winning 2 cups and 11 consecutive eliminating series, Lightning enjoys a very net advantage over the Avalanche. He doesn’t even have a photo.
In conclusion : the most decisive offensive factor falls in favor of the Lightning. And so it goes for the two defensive factors that the authors judged the most important from a statistical point of view.
Finally, in terms of intangible details such as the experience gained and recent championship matches, the Lightning enjoys the net advantage that an LNH team could have known over the last 40 years.
Pour all these reasons, the Lightning in 7.